Event-driven multi-asset research

Historical Event Table

By DisciplineIsBetter

Compares scheduled macro releases with market price structure before and after each event.

31 releases studied · Jan 2024–Aug 2026
Event overview
Next release · New York timeChecking the next release...
View calendar

Official calendar

Upcoming market events

Dates are sourced from the BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, Census Bureau, and ISM. Consensus estimates remain blank until published by a verified supported source.

Historical outcome frequencies

Loading

Median return--

Historical tendency is not a live forecast.

Release interpretationChecking recorded figures...

All releases in selection

View reaction chart

Observed release outcomes

31 CPI releases
Observed returns: up / near flat / down
Timeline of BTC four-hour percentage returns after each CPI release, with bubbles showing actual direction and rings showing whether the current historical projection matched.

Same observations as the release list, not model predictions. Session closures and partial windows are recorded in each release's provenance.

Checking data coverage...
Advanced research

BTC model and validation retain their original samples and timeframes, independently of the selected year. These estimates are separate from the historical frequencies above.

Automatic live read

Next CPI outlook from current BTC structure

No manual inputs. Coinbase BTC-USD structure and the historical probability model refresh when the page opens and every five minutes.

NO CLEAR EDGELoading live BTC data…
REFRESHING
NEXT CPI — — —
Model interpretation

CALCULATING

Reading the next event, current BTC structure, and comparable historical cases.

Pre-release probability — Bullish — · Bearish —
After first 5m — Available after the first completed five-minute candle
Model evidence and diagnostics

What can the study conclude now?

Probabilities use comparable prior releases only.
Building comparison set…
Pre-release surprise riskCALCULATINGChecking verified expectations and historical surprise frequencies.
Current BTC regimeCALCULATINGClassifying trend, volatility, and range location.
Event-specific readCALCULATINGLoading the release-family checklist.
First 5 minutes——
First hour——
First 4 hours——
5m → 4h reversal——
Prior high / low test——
At least a 1% move——

These are separate conditional outcomes; they are not one combined trade probability.

Next CPI——
Coinbase BTC-USD now—Waiting for market data
60-hour structure——
Completed previous day——
Current range location——
Expected CPI volatility——
Historical evidence —

—

Release confirmation WAITING

The first five-minute candle after CPI must confirm the provisional direction.

Next CPI consensus NOT PUBLISHED

Expected headline and core readings remain blank until a verified consensus source is available.

Options context

BTC options-implied event movement

Deribit volatility and nearest-expiry ATM straddle; Coinbase remains the spot reference.
Loading options context…
4-hour implied move—DVOL estimate plus nearest-expiry straddle
Event-expiry range—Nearest ATM straddle after the release
Historical realized / implied—Median absolute four-hour move
BTC DVOL—Deribit volatility index
5% OTM put/call skew—Put IV minus call IV
Option positioning—ATM call + put open interest
Volatility term structure—Front IV minus next-expiry IV

Study reliability

How much should I trust this study?

Frozen model validation, separate from the selected-year observations.

RESEARCH ONLY
Bottom line WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION

Technical validation

Probability reliability

Each row compares the model's average forecast with the outcome rate that actually occurred.

Prospective shadow ledger

Predictions frozen before future event outcomes

Historical rows are simulations. This separate ledger records model-versioned checkpoints for future releases and never rewrites an earlier forecast.

Checking durable ledger…
Model version—
Frozen since—
Overlap policy—

A checkpoint is captured automatically when this page is open during its eligible time window. Durable cloud storage is used when the deployment binding is available.

Auditable forecast history

What the model knew at each checkpoint

T-24h, T-1h, release, and T+5m use only information available then. T+4h is the observed result.

NO CLEAR EDGE
Event-specific model—
Primary trigger—
Walk-forward training—

Historical probabilities are rebuilt from earlier releases only; later outcomes never enter an earlier checkpoint.

Historical analogues

Most similar earlier event cases

Similarity uses pre-event structure, prior-day direction, range location, macro surprise, first-five-minute impulse, volume, event family, and overlap state.

Transparent weighted distance

Observed outcomes

CPI thesis probabilities

Every percentage shows the observed count and a 95% Wilson interval.

Automatic trade-expectancy research

Did the directional model produce a usable return?

Read-only research with a fixed T+5m entry, target, stop, T+4h time exit, and explicit cost assumption.

RESEARCH ONLY

Cross-tool context

Current market state in one strip

Fresh local tool reads are shown when available; stale or missing scans are labeled rather than inferred.

Refreshes with the page
LiquidityNO FRESH SCANOpen Liquidity to refresh ExhaustionNO FRESH SCANOpen Exhaustion to refresh BTC & S&P CorrelationLOADING30-session relationship Relative PerformanceNO FRESH SNAPSHOTOpen Relative Performance to refresh
Coinbase volumeLOADINGLatest 5m versus recent median
Data health and sources

Checking completed event results...

Coinbase BTC-USD spot candles
Data coverage

Data health

Waiting for background archive status.

Asset coverage and official calendars
AssetComplete / duePartialMissingRetry deferred
Calendar sourceLast successPublished throughStatus